If you've been watching the Northern Virginia market from the sidelines, waiting for a clear signal about whether to move, the second quarter of 2026 just gave you one. April, May, and June are on the books, and when you look at NOVA in its entirety, the story is straightforward. Prices went up. Time on market went down.

For sellers, that's fantastic news. For buyers, it could be a little bit hairy because it means you're paying more, and you have to move faster to do it.

But here's the thing about a regional number: it's an average, and averages hide the interesting parts. What I really wanted to look at was price bracket by price bracket, county by county, because that's where the more complete picture lives. And I think some of it may surprise you.

To keep it moving, I'm using three brackets everywhere: under 500, meaning under $500,000. The middle market, $501,000 to $999,000. And luxury, $1 million to $2 million. Same three tiers in every county, so you can compare apples to apples.

1. Arlington: the under 500 market opened a door for buyers. This is the one that runs against the regional headline. In Arlington, the under 500 market actually saw prices come down a little. If you've been trying to get into Arlington at that price point and kept getting priced out, this is an opportunity for you. The middle market and the luxury market both held steady, with prices actually going up. And across all three brackets, days on market went down.
2. Fairfax: up across the board, and moving fast. Fairfax is the cleanest version of the regional story. All three brackets, under 500, middle market, and luxury, saw prices go up, and days on market went down in all three. If you're selling in Fairfax, keep in mind that you want to show your property well, because you're in a market that's rewarding sellers right now. And if you're buying, when you see the property you want, go for it, because it's not going to last.
3. Loudoun County: strength below, opportunity above. In Loudoun, the under 500 market and the middle market both showed prices going up, and as always, days on market went down. Where you see a little bit of a struggle is the luxury market over a million. Prices there went down even though days on market went down as well.

So what is that telling us? It's telling us there's an opportunity in the Loudoun luxury market to get something a little bit under pricing. If that's where you're shopping, take a closer look right now, because this may be your window.

4. Prince William: the same story as Loudoun, with a warning attached. Prince William shares the same scenario. The under 500 market and the middle market both went gangbusters in terms of appreciation and price, and days on market went down. So, buyers, if you see it in those two brackets, get in there, but roll up your sleeves and be prepared, because it may be a multiple-contract situation for you.

And the luxury market in Prince William went down in price, just like Loudoun, with days on market also going down. So just like Loudoun, this is a buyer's opportunity for luxury buyers in Prince William County, and you may want to take advantage of it.

The pattern worth noticing. Put those four counties side by side and something clear emerges. The entry-level and middle markets across most of Northern Virginia are behaving like a seller's market, prices climbing, homes moving quickly. But the luxury market in Loudoun and Prince William is doing the opposite, softening on price while still selling faster. That's an unusual combination, and it's the kind of thing you'd never see if you only looked at the regional average.

Which bracket you're in matters more than which quarter it is. A buyer in Arlington under $500,000 and a buyer in Prince William over $1 million are both looking at more favorable conditions than the headline suggests. A seller in Fairfax is in a completely different position, and should be pricing and preparing accordingly.

I hope this information helped. If you have any questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation, whether you're thinking about selling this year or trying to figure out if now is your moment to buy, please feel free to call or text me at (703) 216-4272, or email me at terrirobinson@remax.net. I'm always happy to help. You can also find more on the Northern Virginia market at liveinva.com.